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Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

Oil Vol. $68,502 50 traders

July 24100%
August 250%
July 2832%
August 1928%
$68,502 Vol. Oil

Outcomes

39
Chance
July 24 Resolved
100% ▲ 82
July 25 Resolved
0% ▼ 1
July 26 Resolved
0% ▼ 2
July 27
3% ▼ 1
July 28
32% ▲ 9
July 29
5% ▲ 1
July 30
2% ▼ 9
July 31
<1% ▼ 20
August 1
18%
August 2
50% ▲ 39
August 3
13% ▲ 2
August 4
12% ▼ 3
August 5
14% ▼ 19
August 6
12%
August 7
28% ▲ 20
August 8
13%
August 9
11%
August 10
10%
August 11
10% ▼ 3
August 12
11% ▼ 4
August 13
19% ▼ 7
August 14
12%
August 15
9%
August 16
9% ▼ 5
August 17
10%
August 18
11% ▼ 2
August 19
28% ▲ 15
August 20
9% ▲ 1
August 21
12% ▼ 1
August 22
12%
August 23
14%
August 24
11% ▼ 4
August 25
9%
August 26
16% ▼ 1
August 27
17% ▲ 7
August 28
12%
August 29
9%
August 30
10% ▼ 1
August 31
6% ▼ 1

Recent trades

  • No recent trades

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

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