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Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Politics Vol. $441,156 50 traders

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva95%
Flavio Bolsonaro85%
Renan Santos11%
Ronaldo Caiado5%
$441,156 Vol. Politics

Outcomes

9
Chance
Romeu Zema
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
5% ▼ 1
Renan Santos
11%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
95% ▲ 1
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
<1% ▼ 1
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Flavio Bolsonaro
85% ▲ 2

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General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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